Vaata reede, 15 detsember 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Dec 15 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 349 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Dec 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S06W59) produced
an X1.5/2B solar flare with a 510 sfu 10 cm radio burst at
14/2215Z. Type II (1277 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were
associated with this event. The flare was accompanied by a
frontside, asymmetrical, full halo CME with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 900 km/s. Ejecta of this CME seems to be
predominately from the southwest sector of the halo.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remain a
possibility.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached severe storm levels. A 100 MeV proton
event commenced 14/2255Z, reached a 2.3 pfu maximum at 15/0015Z and
ended 15/0325Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that commenced
13/0310Z, reached a 698 pfu maximum at 13/0925Z and ended at
15/1620Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels
today. Solar wind speed has decreased to 600 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels. A glancing blow
from the CME late in the day of 14 December is expected to impact
the geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day one of the forecast
period (December 16). Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue into December 17. The disturbance is expected to abate to
quiet to unsettled conditions for the final day of the forecast
period (December 18).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Deckuni 18 Dec
| Klass M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Klass X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 Dec 087 Prognoositud 16 Dec-18 Dec 090/090/090 90 päeva keskmine 15 Dec 081
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Dec 030/063 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 15 Dec 060/100 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 040/045-045/070-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Dec kuni 18 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 50% | 50% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 60% | 60% | 10% |
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