Vaata kolmapäev, 13 detsember 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Dec 13 2245 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 347 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Dec 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05W33) produced
an X3.4/4B flare with a 44000 sfu 10 cm radio burst at 13/0240 UTC.
Type II (1534 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with
this event, as well as a fast moving CME (estimated plane of sky
speed of 1500 km/s). Region 930 has a strong delta configuration in
the southern penumbral area of the leader spot.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to reach
moderate to high levels. Isolated X-class flares are possible from
Region 930.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels for the last 24
hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event started at 13/0245 UTC,
and reached a maximum of 88.7 pfu at 13/0525 UTC. A greater than 10
MeV proton event started at 13/0250 UTC, and reached a maximum of
698 pfu at 13/0925 UTC. These events are associated with the X3
event from Region 930. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels. Activity from the
CME observed early on 13 December is expected to impact the
geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day 1 (14 December) of the
forecast period. Major to severe storm conditions are expected to
continue early into 15 December. Levels should decrease to unsettled
to minor storming by 16 December. The greater than 100 MeV and 10
MeV proton events now in progress are expected to continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Deckuni 16 Dec
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Prooton | 99% | 99% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Dec 094 Prognoositud 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 13 Dec 081
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Dec 015/026 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Dec 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 065/130-050/100-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Dec kuni 16 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 55% | 45% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 65% | 55% | 15% |
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