Vaata kolmapäev, 6 detsember 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Dec 06 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 340 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Dec 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05E60) produced
an M6/SF flare at 06/0823Z and an X6/3B flare at 06/1847Z. The M6
flare had an associated Type IV radio sweep and a Tenflare. The X6
flare had an associated Type IV radio sweep, a Tenflare, and a Type
II radio sweep (estimated shock speed of 827 km/s). A CME was
probably associated with this event, but LASCO imagery is
unavailable for confirmation. Region 930 is now classified as a Dkc
group with an area of 490 millionths. It is magnetically complex,
with an east-west inversion line and a Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares and there is a
good chance for further X-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed has increased to approximately 600 km/s, indicating
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux reached the event threshold of 10 pfu at 06/1555Z,
with a maximum observed flux so far of 24 at 2100Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 07 - 08 December with a chance
for periods of minor or major storm conditions due to the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 09 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue for at least another 24 hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Deckuni 09 Dec
| Klass M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Klass X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Prooton | 95% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Dec 103 Prognoositud 07 Dec-09 Dec 105/105/105 90 päeva keskmine 06 Dec 080
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/002 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Dec 018/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 020/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Dec kuni 09 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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