Vaata teisipäev, 5 detsember 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Dec 05 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 339 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Dec 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. New Region 930 (S06E72)
produced an X9/2N flare at 05/1035Z. There was a Type II radio
sweep (estimated shock speed of 836 km/s) associated with this
flare, along with a Type IV sweep and a Tenflare. The flare was
observed on the east limb from GOES-12 SXI imagery. A CME was
probably associated with this event, however LASCO imagery was
unavailable to confirm this.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares.
In addition, there is a chance for another X-class flare from this
region.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. However, a
solar sector boundary was seen at ACE beginning at about 05/1620Z,
and velocities were increasing at forecast issue time. GOES proton
data showed an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons
beginning at 05/1530Z. The maximum flux observed so far was 3.2
PFU at 05/2050Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 6 December. Active to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are expected on 7-8
December due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Deckuni 08 Dec
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Dec 102 Prognoositud 06 Dec-08 Dec 100/105/105 90 päeva keskmine 05 Dec 089
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 015/015-025/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Dec kuni 08 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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