Vaata esmaspäev, 12 september 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Sep 12 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 255 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Sep 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 808 (S11E17)
produced four M-class flares. The largest of these was a M6.1/2f
flare at 12/0903 UTC. This flare had an associated tenflare of 980
sfu. Region 808 has decayed in penumbral area on the eastern and
western most ends of the sunspot region. Area has decayed to
approximately 840 millionths; however, the region still exhibits a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A shock
was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 12/0600 UTC.
Solar wind speed at ACE increased to over a thousand km/s; however,
the IMF Bz never went lower than -12 nT. Minor to major storm levels
occurred at all latitudes following the shock. Solar wind speed
gradually declined to near 800 km/s by the end of the period. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress, but has now
declined to near 10 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to major storm levels. Solar wind
speed remains very high and further transient flow is expected on 13
September. Barring any further CME activity from Region 808, the
geomagnetic field should return to unsettled to active periods by 15
September.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Sepkuni 15 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| Klass X | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Prooton | 99% | 50% | 40% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Sep 118 Prognoositud 13 Sep-15 Sep 115/110/110 90 päeva keskmine 12 Sep 092
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Sep 053/105 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Sep 045/060 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 025/035-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Sep kuni 15 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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