Vaata reede, 9 september 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Sep 10 0521 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 252 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Sep 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z

Solar activity increased to very high levels. Region 808 (S09E54) continues to be very active and produced five major flares today. Major flare activity is listed in chronological order: an X5/2b event at 08/2106Z, an X1 at 09/0300Z, an M6/1f at 09/0548Z, an X3 at 09/0959Z, and a long duration X6/2b at 09/2004Z which had associated Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 959 km/sec) radio sweeps. Region 808 is an extremely complex and compact spot group exceeding 1400 millionths of white light area. Magnetic analysis clearly depicts a very strong beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at high to very high levels. Region 808 will continue to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels today. The CME associated with the X17 event on 07 September was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 09/1315Z. This was followed by a 30 nT sudden impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 09/1359Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/0215Z was further enhanced today. The current peak flux is 465 pfu which occurred at 09/2000Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 08/0405Z was also further enhanced today and was just under 8 pfu at 09/1920Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are expected on 10 September due to ongoing transient flow. CME activity associated with today's flares is expected to become geoeffective on 11 September and produce active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through the next three days. The greater than 100 MeV proton event now in progress is expected to continue through 11 September. Today's X6/2b flare may enhance the existing proton events.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Sepkuni 12 Sep
Klass M90%90%90%
Klass X75%75%75%
Prooton99%99%99%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       09 Sep 099
  Prognoositud   10 Sep-12 Sep  100/100/105
  90 päeva keskmine        09 Sep 091
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/008
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  012/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  015/020-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Sep kuni 12 Sep
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%40%35%
Väike torm15%20%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%15%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%45%40%
Väike torm20%35%20%
Suur-tõsine torm15%20%15%

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