Vaata kolmapäev, 7 september 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Sep 07 2204 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 250 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Sep 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels this period as newly numbered Region 808 (S12E83) produced one of the largest solar flares of Cycle 23. An X17/3b white light flare erupted in this region at 07/1740Z. A large and fast CME was visible on the MK4 coronagraph at Mauna Loa. Intense centimetric radio bursts accompanied this flare, including a 27,000 sfu Tenflare. Type II (1860 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed. This region also produced a very long duration M1 flare, which peaked at 06/2202Z. A fast and bright CME (1400 km/s) on LASCO imagery was observed with this event. The sunspot cluster associated with Region 808 is just now rotating into view, so an accurate assessment of its true size and complexity will have to wait. Region 808 is the return of old Region 798, which produced significant solar and geophysical activity during its last passage on the visible disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808 is obviously a complex and moderate-large size sunspot group with great flare potential. Expect further major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Today's powerful X17 flare produced a sudden disturbance in the geomagnetic field at 07/1725Z. This 82 nT magnetic crochet was one of the largest observed this Solar Cycle. A slow rise in the greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit began near issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. The CME activity associated with yesterday's long-duration M1 and today's X17 flares were not Earth directed. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit are slowly rising now and are expected to continue to do so. These protons will likely cross the 10 pfu threshold on 08 Sep.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Sepkuni 10 Sep
Klass M70%75%75%
Klass X30%30%30%
Prooton60%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Sep 100
  Prognoositud   08 Sep-10 Sep  110/120/120
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Sep 091
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/009
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/012-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Sep kuni 10 Sep
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%15%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%20%
Väike torm10%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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