Vaata pühapäev, 31 juuli 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 31 2224 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 212 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 31 Jul 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 31-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours.
Region 792 (N12E38) produced today's only M-class event, an M1 at 1224 UTC.
The group produced additional B-class events during the day. This
region does not appear to have changed very much during the past 24
hours; it continues to be the largest on the disk and is a compact
group of spots with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification.
Region 791 (N12W62) produced a C7/Sf at 0932 UTC but was otherwise
quiet and stable. Two new regions rotated into view today: Region
794 (S11E73) and Region 795 (N15E77). Both appear to be simple
H-type groups at this time.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with Region 792 as the most likely source for activity.
There continues to be a chance for isolated major flare activity out
of 792.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 30-2100Z kuni 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 10 MeV event that began at 27/2300 UTC and reached
maximum of 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC continues in progress but was
slowly declining during the day. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become mostly active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods for 01 August due to the arrival of a glancing blow
from the X1/CME of 30/0635 UTC. Conditions should decline to
unsettled with occasional active periods for 02 August and should
be predominantly quiet on 03 August.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 Augkuni 03 Aug
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 31 Jul 110 Prognoositud 01 Aug-03 Aug 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 31 Jul 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 30 Jul 011/016 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/025-015/015-007/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 Aug kuni 03 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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