Vaata pühapäev, 17 juuli 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 198 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Jul 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Activity was at low levels today. Region 790 (S10W93)
produced the largest flare during the period, a very impulsive C4
flare which occurred at 17/0629Z. This region also produced
multiple B-class flares as it began rotating beyond the solar west
limb. Spotless Region 789 (N17W86) was responsible for producing
several B-class flares today. A back-sided full halo CME, which is
believed to be from old Region 786 (N12 L=056), was first observed
on LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1130Z. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
weak transient signature (likely from the X1 related CME activity
seen on 14 July) was detected at the ACE spacecraft near 17/0000Z
where the wind speeds increased from near 425 km/sec to 500 km/sec.
Minor storming was later observed between 17/0900 and 1200Z. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak
flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, and underwent an injection of flux at
17/1735Z allowing for the event to remain in-progress at near 17 pfu
at the time of this writing. The source believed responsible for
the increase in proton flux was the back-sided activity relating to
the full halo CME mentioned in 1A.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on 18 and
19 July. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to
become geoeffective 20 July with active to minor storming expected
and isolated major storm conditions possible. The greater than 10
proton event is expected to end on 18 July.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Julkuni 20 Jul
| Klass M | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 99% | 15% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Jul 074 Prognoositud 18 Jul-20 Jul 075/075/075 90 päeva keskmine 17 Jul 097
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Jul 010/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Jul 010/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 005/015-008/012-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Jul kuni 20 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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