Vaata neljapäev, 7 juuli 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 188 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jul 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N12W04) produced an M4.9/Sn flare at 07/1629 UTC. This event also had an associated 180 sfu Tenflare and a full halo CME, which was observed by LASCO imagery. Region 786 has grown in both white light area coverage and sunspot count, and has maintained its magnetic delta configuration. Two other events were observed by LASCO imagery earlier in the period. The first was a faint partial halo event which was first observed at 06/2126 UTC. Data for this event indicates it is probably a back-sided event and not Earth directed. The second event was a CME observed with a possible partial halo beginning around 07/1250 UTC. This event was likely associated with an 11 degree long disappearing filament centered at N07E00 between 07/1033 - 1148 UTC.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected due to possible effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream, today's M4 halo CME, and the CME associated with the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Julkuni 10 Jul
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Jul 125
  Prognoositud   08 Jul-10 Jul  120/120/115
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Jul 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/005
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/007
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/025-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jul kuni 10 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%35%35%
Väike torm10%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%10%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%45%40%
Väike torm20%25%20%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%10%

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