Vaata teisipäev, 5 juuli 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 05 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 186 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Jul 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 788 (S06E32) produced a
C1/Sf flare with an observed optical Y-shaped ribbon at 05/1526 UTC.
This event had an associated partial halo CME which was first
observed in the LASCO imagery at 05/1530 UTC. There were two other
CME's observed by LASCO imagery during the last 24 hours. One was
at 04/2130 UTC and the second was observed at 05/0330 UTC. Both of
these appear to be backside events and not Earth directed. Region
786 (N12E23) has lost its delta magnetic configuration and has
decreased in total sunspot count. Region 783 (S03W22) has grown and
is now around 530 millionths of white light area coverage and has
developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A 26 degree long
filament disappeared from S22W22 between 05/0205-1220 UTC.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Both Regions 783 and 786 are capable of producing and isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 06-07 July. Quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible on 08
July due to the effects of the partial halo CME observed today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Julkuni 08 Jul
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Jul 127 Prognoositud 06 Jul-08 Jul 130/125/120 90 päeva keskmine 05 Jul 095
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/007-005/007-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Jul kuni 08 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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