Vaata esmaspäev, 4 juuli 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 04 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 185 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Jul 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
two, low-level C-class events. The first was a C1/Sf at 03/2111 UT
from Region 787 (S11W58) and the second was a C1 at 04/2037 UT from
Region 782 (S18W56). Both of these regions are small and appear to
be decaying. Region 783 (S03W07) continues to be the largest on the
disk but was in decay today. The group appears to have simplified to
a beta magnetic configuration and did not produce any flares. New
Region 789 (N18E74) rotated into view today, accompanied by surging
on the limb and frequent low-level brightenings. Region 786 (N12E36)
showed growth today and appears to have a magnetic delta
configuration in the leading group of spots. Despite the complexity
in 786 the group did not produce any flare activity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there continues to be a chance for an isolated M-class event,
with Regions 786 or Region 783 the most likely source.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field should be
mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Julkuni 07 Jul
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Jul 124 Prognoositud 05 Jul-07 Jul 120/120/115 90 päeva keskmine 04 Jul 095
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Jul 009/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Jul kuni 07 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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