Vaata laupäev, 2 juuli 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jul 02 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 183 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Jul 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The majority of today's activity came from Region 785 (S22W06), which produced five C-class events. The largest of these was a C3/Sf at 0316 UTC. Region 785 has shown steady growth during the past 24 hours. An additional C-flare (C1 at 1614 UTC) was produced by Region 786 (N10E62). Region 783 (S06E21) is currently the largest group on the disk with an area of 570 millionths, but was stable and quiet. New Region 788 (S07E71) rotated into view today and is a simple H-type spot.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class during the next three days (3-5 July). Of the eight spotted regions on the disk, 785 and 783 appear to be the most likely sources for future M-class level activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels due to the effects of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. However, the interplanetary magnetic field weakened significantly at about 0700 UTC, and conditions have been quiet to unsettled since then. Solar wind velocities remain elevated but were declining during the past 24 hours, with typical values of 540-560 km/s by forecast issue time.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled, but there is a continued chance for occasional active periods during the next two days (03-04 July) as effects from the coronal hole are expected to linger. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet by the third day (05 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Julkuni 05 Jul
Klass M30%30%30%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       02 Jul 124
  Prognoositud   03 Jul-05 Jul  125/125/130
  90 päeva keskmine        02 Jul 094
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Jul  012/016
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  013/013
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  010/015-010/018-005/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Jul kuni 05 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%20%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%20%
Väike torm20%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

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