Vaata laupäev, 25 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 25 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 176 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. A C1
x-ray flare occurred in Region 780 (S07W43) at 25/0346Z. This
region continues to decay as white light depicts a two spot AXX
alpha group. There were several disappearing filaments reported
today near the time SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a full halo CME.
Much of CME signature is believed to be back-sided, although there
is some evidence that the filament activity contributed to the
overall CME signature leaving the potential for an Earth directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Showing weak
geoeffective consequences, the recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream has pushed the solar winds speeds to over 600 km/sec. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been
predominantly north throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 26 June due to the high speed
stream and again on 28 June due to the potential effects from the
front-sided component of the CME activity seen today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Junkuni 28 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Jun 077 Prognoositud 26 Jun-28 Jun 080/080/085 90 päeva keskmine 25 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Jun 004/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 010/015-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Jun kuni 28 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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