Vaata reede, 17 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 168 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Solar activity is expected to be low. Newly numbered
Region 780 (S07E66) produced the only C-class activity of the
period, a C1 flare at 17/1904Z. Active Regions 775 (N10, L=055) and
776 (S05, L=046) have both rotated around the west limb. A post CME
loop system on the west limb persisted through the early part of
this period following yesterday's M4 proton flare from Region 775.
Region 779 (S18W19) continues to slowly grow and is now an E-type
beta-gamma spot group; however, no activity of note occurred.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 779 and 780.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed
conditions occurred early in the period during intervals of
sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed decreased from over 650
km/s to under 550 km/s by the end of the period. The elevated solar
wind conditions are due to the combined effects of CME transient
flow and a high speed coronal hole stream. A greater than 100 MeV
proton event began at 16/2125Z following yesterday's M4 flare. The
event ended at 17/0730Z with a peak flux of 2.9 pfu at 16/2315Z. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 16/2200Z, peaked at
17/0500Z at 44 pfu, and ended at 17/1805Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to produce occasional active conditions on 18
June. It is unlikely that much of the ejecta associated with
yesterday's M4 flare and CME is Earth directed; however, a glancing
blow may create active to minor storm periods on 19 June. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 20 June. The greater than 10 and
greater than 100 MeV protons are expected to return to background
levels over the next day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Junkuni 20 Jun
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Jun 091 Prognoositud 18 Jun-20 Jun 090/090/090 90 päeva keskmine 17 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Jun 019/026 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Jun 015/014 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 012/015-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Jun kuni 20 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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