Vaata esmaspäev, 13 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 14 0030 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 164 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 775 (N10W46) and
776 (S06W34) are both in decay. LASCO imagery showed a CME at
13/1600 UTC. The ejecta was directed to the north west and is not
likely to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Periods of major storming levels were observed at 12/2100 - 2400 UTC
and again at 13/0300 - 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to a
prolonged southward Bz in response to CME activity from 08 June. By
the end of the period conditions had quieted down to unsettled
levels and the Bz component of the Magnetic field did not vary
beyond +/- 5 Nt. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 14 June. The arrival of a CME
associated with C-class X-ray activity early on 12 June is expected
early on 15 June causing unsettled to active conditions with periods
of minor storming possible. Activity is expected to settle down to
quiet to active levels on 16 June.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Junkuni 16 Jun
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Jun 092 Prognoositud 14 Jun-16 Jun 090/090/085 90 päeva keskmine 13 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Jun 023/035 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Jun 020/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/012-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Jun kuni 16 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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