Vaata reede, 27 mai 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 May 27 2220 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 147 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 May 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 767 (S08W02)
produced an M1/2f and associated tenflare at 27/1230 UTC. This
region also produced a C8 flare at 26/2139 UTC. A type IV radio
sweep was associated with this C8 event and a faint CME was observed
on LASCO imagery. Region 767 continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity, and is now nearing 400 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767 has the potential for further M-class
activity. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), a large and moderately
complex region during its last rotation, is due to rotate onto the
visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 28 May. The most disturbed periods will likely occur on
29 and 30 May as the recent CMEs from Region 767 are expected to
impact the geomagnetic field.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Maykuni 30 May
| Klass M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 May 096 Prognoositud 28 May-30 May 100/105/110 90 päeva keskmine 27 May 091
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 May 001/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 May 005/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 May kuni 30 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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