Vaata neljapäev, 26 mai 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 May 26 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 146 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 May 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A long duration B7.5 flare occurred at 26/1420 UTC from Region 767 (S08E12). A filament eruption was associated with this event, followed by a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. The bulk of the CME, first seen at 26/1506 UTC, was directed to the south west. The plane of sky speed of the ejecta was approximately 575 km/s. At the time of issue, a C8 flare was in progress in this region. New sunspot development between the leading and trailing spots have increased the size and complexity of this active region. New Region 768 (S08W48) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 767 has the potential for C-class activity with a small chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), which produced three M-flares on its last rotation, is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods on 27 and 28 May due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream. The full halo CME from 26 May is expected to cause active to minor storm conditions on 29 May.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Maykuni 29 May
Klass M05%05%05%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       26 May 090
  Prognoositud   27 May-29 May  090/095/100
  90 päeva keskmine        26 May 091
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 May  002/006
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 26 May  005/005
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  010/010-015/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 May kuni 29 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%25%40%
Väike torm10%15%20%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%40%50%
Väike torm10%20%30%
Suur-tõsine torm01%10%15%

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