Vaata laupäev, 22 jaanuar 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jan 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 022 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Jan 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There
were three C-class flares: a C3 at 0432 UTC from the west limb at
S07, a C1 at 1245 UTC from the west limb at N14, and a C1 at 2053
UTC from the west limb at N15. The first flare was probably from old
Region 719 which recently rotated around west limb, and the other
two were probably from Region 720 which rotated off the disk today.
With the departure of Region 720, Region 725 (S04W49) is now the
largest group on the disk with an area of about 190 millionths.
Region 725 has been growing steadily but so far has produced only
minor flare activity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a chance for an M-class event, and a slight
chance for a major flare event, from Region 720 during the next 24
hours (23 January). However, the likelihood for M-class or higher
level events is expected to decline strongly for the 2nd and 3rd
days (24-25 January) as the region gets further beyond the west
limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from the
beginning of the period (21/2100 UTC) through 22/0600 UTC. Since
0600 UTC conditions have been mostly unsettled. Solar wind
signatures show a steady decline in velocity from around 950 km/s at
the beginning of the interval down to about 650 km/s by 22/2100 UTC.
Bz has been weak and density has been low since 22/0200 UTC up to
the current time. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes continued to
decline today and appear to have dropped below threshold of 10 PFU
after 22/1755 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active tomorrow (23 January) in response
to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with
some active periods are expected for 24-25 January.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Jankuni 25 Jan
| Klass M | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Klass X | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Prooton | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Jan 102 Prognoositud 23 Jan-25 Jan 095/090/090 90 päeva keskmine 22 Jan 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Jan 030/061 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Jan 020/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 016/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Jan kuni 25 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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