Vaata reede, 21 jaanuar 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 021 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Jan 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class events during the past 24 hours: an M1 from Region 720 (N13W83) at 1016 UTC, and an M1 from Region 719 (S06W90) at 1355 UTC. Two new regions emerged on the disk today: Region 725 (S04W36) and Region 726 (S02E27).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. In addition, there is a fair chance for a major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 720 as it rotates off the solar disk.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially at quiet to unsettled levels until a sudden impulse occurred at 1711 UTC. The sudden impulse was preceded by a strong shock at the ACE spacecraft: solar wind velocity jumped from about 600 km/s to 900-1000 km/s. The sudden impulse at Earth was followed by magnetopause crossings at geosynchronous orbit and severe levels of geomagnetic activity. The shock and subsequent disturbed solar wind were most likely a response to a CME associated with yesterday's X7 event. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 20/0650 UTC continued to decline during the past 24 hours and dropped below threshold at 21/1845 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began 16/0210 continues in progress: flux levels continue to decline with current levels at about 50 PFU.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to major storm levels for the next 12-24 hours (22 January) as the current disturbance persists. Conditions should subside to mostly active levels by day two (23 January). Unsettled to active levels are expected to prevail on the third day (24 January) due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Jankuni 24 Jan
Klass M90%80%70%
Klass X30%20%10%
Prooton95%50%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       21 Jan 114
  Prognoositud   22 Jan-24 Jan  105/095/090
  90 päeva keskmine        21 Jan 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Jan  010/012
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  045/070
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  030/060-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Jan kuni 24 Jan
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%45%40%
Väike torm35%25%20%
Suur-tõsine torm30%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%25%35%
Väike torm25%30%30%
Suur-tõsine torm55%25%05%

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