Vaata arhiivi esmaspäev, 8 november 2004
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Nov 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 313 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Nov 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. An M2.3/1N flare occurred
from Region 696 (N08W36) at 08/1549 UTC. Region 696 was also
responsible for several C-flares and maintains a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. The region decayed slightly to 600
millionths in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with the possibility of M-class and isolated X-flares from
Region 696.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storming levels.
Nine hours of severe storm conditions during the period were the
result of almost six hours of Bz at -40 nT from 07/2230 UTC to
08/0420 UTC. This very significant geomagnetic activity was likely
due to a shock arrival associated with a CME from the M9 flare that
occurred on 06 November. The greater than 10 MeV protons began the
period above thresholds, reached a maximum value of 495 pfu at
08/0115 UTC, and ended the period at 60 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The Geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on 09 November due
to the arrival of a CME associated with the X2.0 flare observed on
07 November. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 10
November. Quiet to active levels are expected on 11 November.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Novkuni 11 Nov
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Nov 124 Prognoositud 09 Nov-11 Nov 125/120/115 90 päeva keskmine 08 Nov 110
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Nov 022/039 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Nov 130/190 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 040/040-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Nov kuni 11 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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