Vaata esmaspäev, 20 september 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Sep 20 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 264 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Sep 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Region 672 (N05W71) produced
two C-class flares. The first was a C1.7 at 20/0310Z. The second
was a C2.1 at 20/0721Z. Region 672 has shown little change over the
past 24 hours as it approaches the west limb. Region 673 (S13E09)
decayed some this period and exhibited no significant activity. New
Region 674 (S10W23) was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar Activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 672 as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period from 0600-0900Z. The active level followed a
period of southward IMF Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began yesterday, has ended. The start time was 19/1925Z and the
maximum of 57 pfu occurred at 20/0100Z. The event ended at 20/1205Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
briefly reached high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated high latitude active
periods on 21 September. Active to minor storm levels are expected
on 22 September due to a CME associated with the M1.9 flare on 19
September. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected
on 23 September.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Sepkuni 23 Sep
| Klass M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 20 Sep 101 Prognoositud 21 Sep-23 Sep 095/090/090 90 päeva keskmine 20 Sep 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Sep 004/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 20 Sep 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 012/015-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Sep kuni 23 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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