Vaata pühapäev, 18 juuli 2004 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 200 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Jul 2004

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region 649 (S10E00) produced five M-class events, all of which occurred in a constricted area around the delta structure in the trailing portion of the spot group. The M-class flares chronologically occurred with an M2/1f at 17/2131Z, an M1 x-ray at 17/2308Z, an M2/1f at 18/0035Z, an M1/Sf at 18/0257Z, and an M1/1f at 18/1713Z. Weak radio bursts accompanied many of today's events while LASCO imagery depicted only faint CME signatures in association with the flare activity observed during the period. Magnetically, Region 649 remains a beta-gamma-delta spot group. Region 652 (N05E58) has fully rotated into view today and is currently measured in white light at over 1300 millionths of spot area coverage. Several C-class flares were observed during the period and a strong delta structure is evident in the intermediate cluster of spots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 649 and 652 are both capable of producing major flare level activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible on 19 and 20 July mostly at higher latitudes due to the potential for transient passages from the major flare activity seen from Region 649 during the past several days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Julkuni 21 Jul
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X40%40%40%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFGreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       18 Jul 155
  Prognoositud   19 Jul-21 Jul  150/150/145
  90 päeva keskmine        18 Jul 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Jul  013/024
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/015-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Jul kuni 21 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm10%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%25%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%

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