Vaata teisipäev, 13 juuli 2004 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 195 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Jul 2004

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N13W60) emerged rapidly during the past 24 hours and produced three major flares: an M6 at 0017 UTC, an M5/1n at 0848 UTC, and an M6/1b at 1932 UTC. CME's were observed in association with the first and second major flares which were technically classified as halo events, although the majority of the mass erupted off the northwest limb. Region 646 grew from 70 to 220 millionths and has some magnetic complexity along a northeast-to-southwest inversion line. Region 649 (S10E64) is the largest group on the disk with an area of 350 millionths. The region produced numerous C-class events as well as two M-class flares: an M2 at 1208 UTC and an M1/Sf at 1838 UTC.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, with Region 646 and 649 the most likely sources for activity. There is a fair chance for continued major flare activity, particularly out of Region 646.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data countinue to show that the earth is under the influence of a high-speed stream driven by a coronal hole (with typical speeds today between 500 to 600 km/s). There was an enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons, which began around 0100 UTC and reached maximum values of about 1 PFU.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. Unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is expected on the third day as a possible response to a glancing blow from one or the other of today's CMEs.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Julkuni 16 Jul
Klass M75%75%75%
Klass X15%15%15%
Prooton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       13 Jul 127
  Prognoositud   14 Jul-16 Jul  135/140/140
  90 päeva keskmine        13 Jul 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/013
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  012/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/012-010/012-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Jul kuni 16 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%35%
Väike torm15%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%40%
Väike torm20%20%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

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