Vaata neljapäev, 20 november 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 324 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Nov 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 501 (N02W18) produced an M9.6/2b flare at 20/0747 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and a 9700 pfu tenflare. This flare also produced a CME with an estimated velocity of 700 km/s. Region 507 (N07E49) produced a C8.6 at 20/1929 UTC. All regions on the disk were stable in size. Two regions increased in complexity: Region 501 developed into a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, and Region 508 (S20E58) developed into a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 501, 507 and 508 are capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. A CME shock arrived at SOHO/MTOF and was observed at 20/0740 UTC, and a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 0805 UTC. A very strong (55 nT) southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted in severe geomagnetic storming during the latter half of the day. Magnetopause crossings were observed at both main GOES satellites, at 1301 UTC for GOES 12 and at 1628 UTC for GOES 10. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit dropped below high levels early in the day and have remained below threshold. The M9 flare produced elevated 10 MeV proton levels at geosynchronous orbit, but this activity did not cross event thresholds.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active all three days, with major storm conditions possible early on 21 November from the lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm in progress. Minor storming is possible on 22-23 November from a CME shock arrival originating from the M9 flare observed earlier today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Novkuni 23 Nov
Klass M70%75%80%
Klass X15%20%25%
Prooton10%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       20 Nov 175
  Prognoositud   21 Nov-23 Nov  180/190/200
  90 päeva keskmine        20 Nov 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Nov  012/014
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  105/115
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  040/045-025/035-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Nov kuni 23 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%35%
Väike torm35%25%15%
Suur-tõsine torm20%15%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%40%
Väike torm35%40%35%
Suur-tõsine torm30%25%15%

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