Vaata kolmapäev, 19 november 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 323 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Nov 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N03W04)
continues to be active, generating a series of high C-class flares
and an M1.7 at 19/0401Z. Region 508 (S17E75) formerly old Region
486, was newly numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 505 (S22E41) and 506 (S20E62), along with 501
will continue to be a strong threat for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
coronal hole which had driven high solar wind speeds for the last
few days, has progressed beyond geoeffective range, and activity has
relaxed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours.
Minor storm levels should occur near the middle of the period, due
to a glancing blow from an interplanetary shock issued by an M4
flare on 17 Nov. Beginning near midday on day 2, magnetic activity
should jump quickly to active to major storm levels for the
remainder of the period. A strong shock associated with a
combination of a disappearing solar filament and coronal mass
ejection should impact the Earth's magnetic field on or about 20 Nov
at 1200Z.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Novkuni 22 Nov
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Nov 155 Prognoositud 20 Nov-22 Nov 180/200/210 90 päeva keskmine 19 Nov 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Nov 018/020 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Nov 015/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 040/050-030/040-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Nov kuni 22 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
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