Vaata laupäev, 15 november 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 15 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 319 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Nov 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 501(N03E48)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and
B-class flares. The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17
November. Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the
visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. At
approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE
spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was
southward for a four hour period near -10nT. Minor to major storm
levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with
continued high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The effects of
the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue.
Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major
storm levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Novkuni 18 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 Nov 098 Prognoositud 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/125 90 päeva keskmine 15 Nov 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/037 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 15 Nov 030/035 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Nov kuni 18 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
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