Vaata reede, 14 november 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 14 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 318 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Nov 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is a simple, small beta type sunspot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as well.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz), all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days (14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Novkuni 17 Nov
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       14 Nov 099
  Prognoositud   15 Nov-17 Nov  100/105/105
  90 päeva keskmine        14 Nov 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Nov  028/042
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  028/036
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Nov kuni 17 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%45%45%
Väike torm35%30%30%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%35%35%
Väike torm30%30%30%
Suur-tõsine torm25%20%20%

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