Vaata pühapäev, 26 oktoober 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 299 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Oct 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S15E31) produced a long-duration X1.2/3n at 26/0654 UTC, with associated Type II and IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME observed on LASCO imagery with an estimated speed of 1245 km/s. Region 484 (N03W41) produced a long-duration X1.2/2n at 26/1819 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and a partial-halo CME observed on Mauna Loa coronameter imagery. The rise in X-ray flux for this flare was observed at 1721, and 10 MeV proton flux began to rise at the ACE spacecraft at 1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached 10 pfu at 1825 and peaked at 332 pfu at 2020 UTC. An 18-degree filament erupted around S18W51 at 0346 UTC, and a 12-degree filament erupted at N00W55 at 0331 UTC. Both erupting filaments were observed on EIT imagery, and their respective CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery. Neither CME appears to be earth-directed. Regions 484 and 486 maintained their magnetic complexity, although Region 484 decayed slightly in size. The 10.7 cm flux value was flare-enhanced and is estimated due to solar activity at the time of the observation.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce C- and M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active all three days, with possible minor and isolated major storm conditions on days two and three due to partial halo CMEs from both X flares observed today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Octkuni 29 Oct
Klass M90%90%90%
Klass X50%50%50%
Prooton25%25%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       26 Oct 298
  Prognoositud   27 Oct-29 Oct  200/200/170
  90 päeva keskmine        26 Oct 121
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/014
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  008/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  010/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Oct kuni 29 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%35%35%
Väike torm20%25%30%
Suur-tõsine torm05%15%25%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%35%30%
Väike torm25%40%45%
Suur-tõsine torm20%30%30%

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