Vaata kolmapäev, 22 oktoober 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 295 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Oct 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels today. The
disk and limb were very active during the period. Region 486
(S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class
flares over the interval. The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that
occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7's. Region 484
(N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC.
Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT
imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME
that appears to be Earth directed. Magnetic field remains
extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta
structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster.
A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of
producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
today. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the
forecast period. The partial halo CME from today is expected to
arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of
major storming. Day three should see a return to unsettled to
active conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Octkuni 25 Oct
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Oct 154 Prognoositud 23 Oct-25 Oct 160/165/170 90 päeva keskmine 22 Oct 116
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Oct 028/039 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Oct 020/038 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 020/030-040/045-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Oct kuni 25 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 30% | 10% |
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele
Viimane uudis
esmaspäev, 22 aprill 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
laupäev, 23 märts 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
kolmapäev, 20 märts 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Viimane foorumi postitus
What are these long and thin eruptions? 1AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89Unproven theories 341Space Weather Memes 338Filaments and prominences 55
Veel teemasidToeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!
Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!
Fakte kosmose ilmast
| Viimane X-loide | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Viimane M-loide | 25/04/2024 | M1.0 |
| Viimane geomagnetiline torm | 19/04/2024 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Plekivabasid päevi | |
|---|---|
| Viimane päikese plekivaba päev | 08/06/2022 |
| Kuu keskmine päikeseplekkide arv | |
|---|---|
| märts 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Viimased 30 päeva | 133.9 +26.6 |