Vaata arhiivi laupäev, 18 oktoober 2003

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 18 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 291 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Oct 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A noticeable increase in flare activity and background levels was observed during the past 24 hours. Most of this increase was due to newly numbered Region 484 (N05E68) which appears to be a compact D-type group with 240 millionths of area. The region produced numerous C-class flares: the largest was a C4.9 at 1653 UTC. A partial halo CME was observed off the southeast limb, beginning at 1554 UTC. The plane of sky velocity was estimated to be about 700 km/s. Region 483 (S08E55) was assigned today but so far is a small stable sunspot group. The other active regions on the disk showed occasional brightenings but were mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days with Region 484 as the dominant source of activity. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels as the high speed solar wind stream continues. The solar wind speed did not show any trend today and the average velocity was around 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Z-component fluctuated between -7 nT and + 5 nT but was weakly negative on average. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. There should be a gradual decline in activity sometime tomorrow and conditions should be mostly unsettled for the second day. An increase to mostly active with some minor storm periods is expected on the third day as a new coronal hole rotates into favorable position at that time. Today's CME is not expected to directly impact Earth but might result in a glancing blow that could provide a boost to activity on the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Octkuni 21 Oct
Klass M20%20%20%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       18 Oct 109
  Prognoositud   19 Oct-21 Oct  115/115/120
  90 päeva keskmine        18 Oct 116
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Oct  020/031
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  017/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  012/020-012/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Oct kuni 21 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%30%
Väike torm25%25%40%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%15%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%25%
Väike torm25%25%30%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%35%

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