Vaata reede, 19 september 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Sep 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 262 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Sep 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2 at 18/2151 UTC which
appears to have originated from a region behind the east limb near
S06. The second was a C1 at 1820 UTC which was associated with
activity in Region 461 (N17E21). Region 461 continues to be the
largest region on the disk. Region 459 (S11W27) is showing slow,
steady growth and possesses a predominantly East-West inversion
line.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. This activity was due to the continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has shown a slow
decline over the past 24 hours, with initial values around 800 km/s
having decreased to day-end values around 675 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with some isolated minor storm periods
for the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline
to unsettled to slightly active is expected by the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Sepkuni 22 Sep
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Sep 111 Prognoositud 20 Sep-22 Sep 110/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 19 Sep 120
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Sep 029/040 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Sep 025/035 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/025-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Sep kuni 22 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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