Vaata esmaspäev, 25 august 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Aug 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 237 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Aug 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
observed during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 24/2337 UTC from Region
436 (N07W39) and a C3/1f at 0259 UTC from Region 442 (S13E30). The
C3 flare was long duration and was associated with an erupting
prominence (located near S09E38). The event was followed by an
associated coronal mass ejection which was observed off the
southeast limb in C3 coronagraph data. New Region 445 (N04E38) was
assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Today's activity was initially at active levels in response to a
high speed solar wind stream. Activity increased to minor storm
levels from 0600-0900 UTC, but then backed off to mostly unsettled
levels from 0900 through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline to
mostly unsettled is expected on the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Augkuni 28 Aug
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Aug 117 Prognoositud 26 Aug-28 Aug 120/120/125 90 päeva keskmine 25 Aug 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Aug 014/024 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Aug 020/023 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Aug kuni 28 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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