Vaata laupäev, 23 august 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Aug 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 235 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Aug 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Activity was at very low levels. Region 441 (N11E19)
produced a B6 flare at 23/0016Z. Region 441 has shown some growth
in area coverage during the past twenty-four hours. Region 436
(N07W12) remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. At around
23/0100Z a 15 degree solar filament lifted off at N09W47. New
Region 444 (N09E60) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 436 and 441 have the potential for
C-class flare and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar wind speed was near 775 km/s for most of the period and Bz was
predominantly southward with peak values near -6 nT. For a fifteen
hour period today, activity was at minor storm levels with one
period at major storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm levels are expected on day one as coronal hole high speed
stream effects continue. By day two and day three high speed stream
effects should begin to diminish with unsettled to active levels
expected.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Augkuni 26 Aug
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Aug 120 Prognoositud 24 Aug-26 Aug 120/122/125 90 päeva keskmine 23 Aug 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Aug 025/043 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Aug 045/045 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Aug kuni 26 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
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