Vaata neljapäev, 7 august 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Aug 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 219 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Aug 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 421 (S07W72)
produced several flares, including a C1.3 at 07/1203 UTC. Two
C-class flares were produced from an active region just on the other
side of the east limb, the largest a C2.1 at 07/2050 UTC. These
events were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region 424 has
stabilized in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 430 (S08W13)
was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. C-class flares are possible from Region
421. In the next few days, active regions just beyond the east limb
should begin to appear earthside, which may produce increased solar
activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. High
solar wind speeds (up to 700 km/s), associated with a coronal hole in
geoeffective position, are the likely cause of active conditions late
in the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, for day one, due to continued influence of an
equatorial coronal hole. On days two and three, as the coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective position, activity should decrease to
quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Augkuni 10 Aug
| Klass M | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Aug 137 Prognoositud 08 Aug-10 Aug 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 07 Aug 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Aug 034/043 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Aug 010/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 025/040-012/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Aug kuni 10 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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