Vaata esmaspäev, 4 august 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Aug 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 216 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Aug 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 424
(S18E39), with over 700 millionths of white light area, showed some
growth this period, but was otherwise quite stable. Despite this
region's moderate size, it maintains a relatively simple magnetic
structure. New growth was observed in Region 425 (S09E36), but
activity was limited to occasional plage fluctuations and minor
surging. New Region 428 (N16W10) was numbered today. A full halo
CME, first seen on LASCO imagery at 03/0030Z, was likely a backside
event.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has
slight potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed continues
to show a steady decline as the large southern coronal hole rotates
out of a geoeffective position. Occasional periods of southward Bz
account for the active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
one with isolated active periods likely again. A large equatorial
coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position by day two and
produce unsettled to minor storm conditions through the remainder of
the period. Isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are
expected on day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Augkuni 07 Aug
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Aug 123 Prognoositud 05 Aug-07 Aug 125/130/135 90 päeva keskmine 04 Aug 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 008/015-015/025-025/035
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Aug kuni 07 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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