Vaata neljapäev, 17 juuli 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jul 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 198 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Jul 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was a C9/1n at 0823
UTC from Region 412 (N16E05), which was also accompanied by type II
and type IV radio sweeps. Region 412 has shown steady growth with
the emergence of new magnetic flux during the past 24 hours. Region
410 (S12E12) also showed steady growth and was the only other source
for C-class flares. Region 410 has some mixed magnetic polarities
and could develop a delta magnetic configuration. Region 409
(N16E27) continues to be the largest region on the disk but
continues to show decline and simplification. New Region 414
(S02E71) rotated into view today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over
the next three days, with regions 409, 410, and 412 the most likely
sources.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Today's solar wind continues to show the
presence of a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a few isolated active periods
for the next two days. Unsettled to active levels are expected for
the third day. The increase on day three may occur as a possible
response to activity associated with today's C9 flare event.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Julkuni 20 Jul
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Jul 139 Prognoositud 18 Jul-20 Jul 140/135/140 90 päeva keskmine 17 Jul 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Jul 023/048 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Jul 020/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 015/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Jul kuni 20 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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