Vaata kolmapäev, 2 juuli 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jul 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 183 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Jul 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 397 (N10E13)
produced an M3/1f at 0728 UTC. The group has shown some decay of the
spots in the middle portion of the group and loss of the delta
configuration, but there has been some growth in the trailer spots.
The magnetic classification for the group is now beta-gamma,
reflecting its multiple inversion line structure. Region 400
(N04E58) has rotated more fully into view as a small, D-type region
and managed to produced a C1/Sf.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a fair chance for an isolated
M-class event during the next three days from Region 397.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours.
Solar wind conditions were nominal until about 1800 UTC when an
increase was observed in speed and temperature and a decrease was
observed in density. This might indicate the onset of the
anticipated high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and mostly
active for the second and third days. The increase is expected as a
result of a high speed wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. There is a possibility for isolated storm
periods, particularly at the higher latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Julkuni 05 Jul
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Jul 135 Prognoositud 03 Jul-05 Jul 140/145/150 90 päeva keskmine 02 Jul 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Jul 014/013 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Jul 012/014 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 015/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Jul kuni 05 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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