Vaata neljapäev, 19 juuni 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 170 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Jun 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30) lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387 (N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08) produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today. Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of 24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Junkuni 22 Jun
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X15%15%15%
Prooton25%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       19 Jun 123
  Prognoositud   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
  90 päeva keskmine        19 Jun 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Jun kuni 22 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%25%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%50%40%
Väike torm20%20%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%10%
PLAIN GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 99999

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