Vaata arhiivi teisipäev, 17 juuni 2003

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 168 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Jun 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major storm levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Junkuni 20 Jun
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X20%20%20%
Prooton30%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       17 Jun 122
  Prognoositud   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/120/120
  90 päeva keskmine        17 Jun 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Jun  020/032
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  040/050
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Jun kuni 20 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%40%40%
Väike torm15%20%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%50%50%
Väike torm20%25%25%
Suur-tõsine torm10%15%15%
VII Comment: K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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