Vaata kolmapäev, 11 juuni 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 162 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Jun 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N10W62)
produced major flare activity including an X1.3/2b at 11/0002 UTC
and an X1.6/1n at 11/2015 UTC. Region 375 maintained its size and
magnetic complexity. Region 380 produced an M1.8/1f at 11/1743 UTC.
At 11/1730 UTC a filament near S37E12 erupted and was observed on
SOHO/EIT and Mauna Loa H-alpha. Background X-ray flux remained at
M levels for 6 hours during the period beginning at about 1300 UTC.
New Region 383 (N19E22) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels, due to
continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one, with isolated
periods of minor storm conditions possible due to CME arrival from
yesterday's flare activity. Unsettled conditions are expected on
days two and three as the coronal hole wind stream moves out of
geoeffective position. Active conditions are possible on day three
due to potential effects of CMEs related to the major flares and
erupting filament observed today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Junkuni 14 Jun
| Klass M | 95% | 95% | 75% |
| Klass X | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Prooton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Jun 193 Prognoositud 12 Jun-14 Jun 160/150/145 90 päeva keskmine 11 Jun 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Jun 019/027 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Jun 020/017 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 010/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Jun kuni 14 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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