Vaata neljapäev, 29 mai 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 May 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 149 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 May 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45)
once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b
event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV
and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps.
SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting
from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a
beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has
shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also
managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred
at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential
to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated
conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients
associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th
and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second
occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the
severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels
at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with
severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is
expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The
greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold
levels through day one of the interval.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Maykuni 01 Jun
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 80% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 May 138 Prognoositud 30 May-01 Jun 145/140/135 90 päeva keskmine 29 May 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 May 022/036 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 May 050/060 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 May kuni 01 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 50% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
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