Vaata kolmapäev, 28 mai 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 May 28 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 148 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 May 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 365 (S07W32) produced two X-class flares early in the period. The first was an X1.3/2b flare that occurred at 27/2307Z with an associated Tenflare (910 sfu), Type IV, and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 607 km/s.) radio sweep. The second, larger flare, an X3.6 x-ray event which occurred at 28/0027Z that also had an associated Tenflare (1600 sfu), Type IV, and Type II (estimated 392 km/s.) radio sweep. Both flares had associated CME's (based on LASCO imagery) that appear to be Earth directed. This region continues to show good growth and remains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. Little activity was noted from the rest of the disk. Region 374 (S22W59) was newly assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 365 is very capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A recurrent high speed stream coronal hole is responsible for the elevated levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes have been just under event threshold levels for the past several hours of this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to minor storm levels through the forecast period. Transient activity from today's X-flares is expected by day two of the interval with resulting major to severe storm conditions possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit may reach threshold levels on day one of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Maykuni 31 May
Klass M75%75%75%
Klass X25%25%25%
Prooton80%50%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       28 May 130
  Prognoositud   29 May-31 May  135/140/135
  90 päeva keskmine        28 May 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 May  018/026
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 28 May  025/038
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  025/025-040/050-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 May kuni 31 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%35%40%
Väike torm25%35%20%
Suur-tõsine torm15%25%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%30%45%
Väike torm30%35%30%
Suur-tõsine torm20%35%20%

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