Vaata neljapäev, 1 mai 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 May 01 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 121 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 May 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S14W06)
produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf
flare at 01/1143Z. This region continues rapid growth and is now
over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light. Increasing
magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the
region remains a beta-gamma spot group. Region 344 (N15W54)
continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. A 16 degree disappearing solar filament
lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z. No CME was observed
with this DSF. One new region was numbered today, Region 352
(S24E43).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and
has the potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 30-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s. Periods of
southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor
storming and one period of major storm levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period
with active to minor storm levels expected. On day two and day
three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Maykuni 04 May
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 May 149 Prognoositud 02 May-04 May 145/140/130 90 päeva keskmine 01 May 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 30 Apr 034/040 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 May 035/040 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 May kuni 04 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 55% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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