Vaata esmaspäev, 28 aprill 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 118 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Apr 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
337 (S14W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.4/Sf
event occurring at 28/0436Z. There was little change to the
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity noted during the period.
Region 338 (N18W98) has rotated beyond the west limb, although it
did manage to trigger several lesser C-class flares throughout the
day. Region 344 (N16W14) produced the second largest flare of the
interval, a C3.3/Sf occurring at 28/1815Z. This region maintains a
very weak delta complex and magnetically appears to be showing
slight decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A very
weak signature from the NASA/ACE data indicate a transient may have
passed around 28/1200Z although the elevated geomagnetic conditions
are believed to be from a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again reached
high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active for days one and
two of the period as the current coronal hole begins to wane. Minor
storm conditions may occur on day three due to the onset of another
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Aprkuni 01 May
| Klass M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Apr 152 Prognoositud 29 Apr-01 May 150/150/145 90 päeva keskmine 28 Apr 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Apr 011/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Apr 012/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 012/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Apr kuni 01 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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