Vaata pühapäev, 27 aprill 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 117 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W85) produced an M2.5/Sf at 26/2340Z and an M1.7/Sf at 27/1532Z which were the largest flares of the period. This region was again responsible for the vast majority of the activity observed today. Proximity to the west limb hinders analysis of changes in magnetic structure today. Region 344 (N16W00) showed slight growth today and retains a beta-gamma-delta structure. The weak delta complex is evident in the northwestern quadrant of the dominant trailing spot. Region 337 (S14W40) underwent rapid growth during the period adding many additional spots to the south of the main body of this group. This region also depicts a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. A 34 degree solar filament erupted yesterday at approximately 26/2000Z which resulted in a streamer CME that does not appear as though it will become geoeffective No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 has begun to transit the disk but remains capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An increase of 150 km/s in the solar wind speed during the period is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. High latitude minor storm conditions are possible on day one and into day two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Aprkuni 30 Apr
Klass M70%50%50%
Klass X15%10%05%
Prooton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       27 Apr 154
  Prognoositud   28 Apr-30 Apr  155/160/155
  90 päeva keskmine        27 Apr 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Apr  009/015
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Apr kuni 30 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%30%25%
Väike torm20%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%35%30%
Väike torm30%25%15%
Suur-tõsine torm15%10%05%

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