Vaata laupäev, 26 aprill 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 116 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338 (N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at 26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events. The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production. Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours. Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337 (S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347 (S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are possible through the interval due to weak transient passages resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Aprkuni 29 Apr
Klass M70%70%50%
Klass X15%15%05%
Prooton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       26 Apr 144
  Prognoositud   27 Apr-29 Apr  150/145/140
  90 päeva keskmine        26 Apr 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Apr  019/032
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Apr kuni 29 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%30%25%
Väike torm20%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%35%30%
Väike torm30%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm15%10%05%

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