Vaata reede, 25 aprill 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 115 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. The largest flare of the period was an M1/Sf which occurred at 25/0540Z from Region 346 (N16E61) and had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 814 km/s. There seems to be little magnetic complexity to this region based on a single Hsx spot seen in white-light. Region 337 (S14W13) appears to have changed little since yesterday and remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 338 (N18W58) produced the majority of the flare activity throughout the interval which was limited to C-class events. Magnetically, this region appears to be in a decay phase as a single delta complex remains apparent verses the several complexes analyzed earlier in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. High speed solar wind speeds along with embedded transient activity are believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible throughout the period. High speed coronal hole flow may continue to be enhanced by transient activity for the entire interval. A weak CME impact from the M5 flare on April 23 is possible on day one. Further CME effects are possible on day two resulting from the M3 flare that occurred on 24 April. The M1 that occurred today may have a very weak impact late on day two into day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Aprkuni 28 Apr
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       25 Apr 144
  Prognoositud   26 Apr-28 Apr  145/150/145
  90 päeva keskmine        25 Apr 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Apr  024/024
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  020/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Apr kuni 28 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%45%30%
Väike torm25%25%20%
Suur-tõsine torm15%15%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%45%
Väike torm30%30%25%
Suur-tõsine torm20%20%15%

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