Vaata esmaspäev, 7 aprill 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 097 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85) produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region 324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb. Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday. New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Aprkuni 10 Apr
Klass M20%20%15%
Klass X05%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Apr 116
  Prognoositud   08 Apr-10 Apr  110/105/100
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Apr 134
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Apr  006/009
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/008
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Apr kuni 10 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%30%
Väike torm10%05%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%40%
Väike torm15%10%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%03%07%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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