Vaata arhiivi laupäev, 5 aprill 2003

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 095 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62) produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at 05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324 and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500 km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Aprkuni 08 Apr
Klass M35%25%30%
Klass X10%05%05%
Prooton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       05 Apr 137
  Prognoositud   06 Apr-08 Apr  135/130/120
  90 päeva keskmine        05 Apr 135
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Apr  013/026
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  020/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Apr kuni 08 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%40%35%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%40%35%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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